Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Feb. 2023) The fall in “core” machinery orders in February is another bearish signal on business investment last quarter. Domestic machine tool orders suggest a further fall in March, but even if “core”... 12th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Mar. 2023) Both the current and outlook readings in March hit their highest in more than a year, capping off a strong first quarter for the EWS. This is another sign that private consumption remained resilient... 10th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q1 2023) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector remains resilient, the outlook for the manufacturing sector has worsened materially. 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb. 23) While industrial production bounced back and retail sales recorded a strong increase in February, we still think that the economy entered a recession this quarter. 31st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Feb. 2023) & Tokyo CPI (Mar. 2023) Labour market conditions loosened in February and should continue to do so over coming months due to a recession. Meanwhile, Tokyo CPI data showed a large increase in underlying inflation, as both... 31st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Mar. 22) March’s flash PMIs corroborate our view that the economy will see a mild recession this year. The manufacturing PMI improved but was still contractionary, as demand remained weak. Meanwhile a further... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Feb. 2023) Government energy subsidies took 1%-pt off headline inflation last month, but the rise in underlying inflation to a four-decade high underscores the strength in price pressures. The data point to a... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 2023) & Machinery Orders (Jan. 2023) The trade deficit narrowed in February as export volumes picked up and import volumes continued to fall. “Core” machinery orders surprised to the upside in January, but that still points to a fall in... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jan. 2023) Wage growth fell sharply in January to its weakest in almost two years due largely to a slowdown in the growth of regular and overtime hours worked. Real wages posted the worst fall since the Global... 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan. 23) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 23) The unemployment fell slightly in January but we’re still expecting it to rise through mid-year due to an economic downturn. Meanwhile, energy inflation fell by less than we expected in Tokyo as... 3rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Capital Spending (Q4 2022) The increase in capital spending reported in today’s “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations” is broadly consistent with the preliminary Q4 GDP estimate. That means Q4 GDP growth is likely to... 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan. 23) We suspect that the early start to the Lunar New Year was partly responsible for the sharp fall in industrial production in January and there should be a strong rebound in February. Meanwhile, retail... 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Inflation hit a four-decade high in January and while we still expect inflation to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target by mid-year thanks largely to the government’s energy subsidies, there are... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 23) February’s flash PMIs are broadly consistent with our downbeat narrative of the economy in 2023. The manufacturing PMI fell further due largely to a plunge in export orders, while a further rise in... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Jan. 2023) & Machinery Orders (Dec. 2022) The trade deficit was virtually unchanged in January, as volumes and prices of exports and imports fell across the board. With the global downturn weighing on external demand, further export volume... 16th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q4 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4, avoiding a technical recession after the contraction in Q3. With business investment slowing even quicker than we anticipated and a lower savings rate leaving... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
