Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The persistent part-time problem The recent rise in the share of people working part-time but who would like to work longer will continue to restrain wage growth for another couple of years yet. This part-time problem means that a... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The structural decline in investment The structural decline of the manufacturing sector means that the long-awaited transition from mining investment towards non-mining business investment may never happen to the extent that most people... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Inflation targeting – time for a change? The Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand are likely to ignore suggestions that they should lower their inflation targets since that would drive inflation even lower. Targeting nominal GDP growth... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus A new era of very low inflation The unusually low rates of underlying inflation in both Australia and New Zealand will remain a thorn in the side of policymakers for a number of years yet. This explains why we believe that the... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus US-style collapse unlikely, but house prices will still fall A US-style collapse in house prices in Australia is unlikely when lending conditions during the good times have not been as loose as in America and Australian banks are better placed to cope with the... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Pre-election Budget postpones fiscal pain While the Budget has been badged as focusing on “jobs and growth”, Treasurer Scott Morrison was clearly thinking about his own job and the probable Federal election on 2nd July when he crafted it... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Outlook for Australian services exports good, not great While exports of services will continue to grow rapidly over the next decade, they won’t boost GDP by anywhere near as much as resources exports have. For that to happen, countries such as China and... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus MYEFO – Hiding a larger structural fiscal hole The decision by the Treasurer to use the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) to draw attention to the deterioration in the fiscal position triggered by the weak economic backdrop is one that... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Judging the health of New Zealand’s economy Our new Capital Economics New Zealand Activity Proxy (CE NZAP) provides a timely guide to changes in economic activity in New Zealand well ahead of the official GDP data and is a useful barometer of... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What would Grexit mean for Australia? The Australian economy would be largely untouched even if the current problems in Europe culminated in a widespread financial crisis and another euro-zone recession. That said, if the Reserve Bank of... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Response – Economy hung out to dry The 2015-16 Budget will quash any talk of a credit rating downgrade, but won’t give the economy a much-needed helping hand. The decision by Treasurer Joe Hockey not reduce the coming fiscal squeeze... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Preview: Disappointing as well as “dull” While Tuesday’s Federal Budget may well live up to the “dull” label slapped on it by the Prime Minister, the failure to provide any extra support to the economy will be disappointing. This would place... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
