Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ will eventually cut rates to 2.25% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has always ended up cutting interest rates by more than it anticipated at the start of previous easing cycles. We think this time won’t be any different and expect the... 10th September 2024 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Labor isn’t wrecking the economy just yet Labor’s regulatory push can’t be blamed for the recent slump in labour productivity and we aren’t convinced that it will hold back future productivity growth much either. Indeed, we still think that a... 28th May 2024 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Unemployment needs to reach 5% to cool inflation We believe that the “narrow path” of returning inflation to target while keeping unemployment below pre-pandemic levels is wishful thinking. The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t bring domestic cost... 4th April 2024 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The impact of high terms of trade on Australia The surge in the terms of trade explains some of the resilience of Australia’s economy as it has probably encouraged the government to spend more money than it would have done without soaring mining... 7th March 2024 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Stubborn rental inflation won’t prevent RBA rate cuts In recent months, there have been growing concerns that the rapid rise in rental inflation will force the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates higher for longer. To be sure, leading indicators... 17th January 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Neutral interest rate may rise to 1% by 2050 As in other advanced economies, Australia’s neutral rate of interest rate will probably edge up a bit over the coming decades. That will result in higher borrowing costs, but Australia’s low public... 23rd May 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Housing rebound doesn’t look sustainable House prices rebounded in March but we aren’t convinced that this marks the beginning of a sustained rebound. Affordability is set to become the most stretched since the early 90s and if the... 11th April 2023 · 14 mins read
Commodities Focus The economic impact of fracturing on Australia The fracturing of strategic supply chains into US and China trade blocs threatens Australia’s existing significant trade with China but also presents Australia with an opportunity to align its trade... 15th March 2023 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Why Australia will avoid a recession The continued resilience of the economy means that the RBA will have to raise rates more sharply than most expect, which in turn will result in a more severe slowdown in activity than widely... 14th September 2022 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - How far can interest rates rise? Most analysts are overestimating the near-term negative impact of RBA rate hikes on household finances and are therefore underestimating the degree of tightening required to bring inflation under... 19th April 2022 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia - Efforts to combat climate change to weigh on mining Efforts by overseas governments to combat climate change will result in mining falling from 10% of GDP last year to 5% by 2050. Rising exports of “green” metals are unlikely to offset falling coal and... 9th March 2022 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Housing downturn will lead to RBNZ rate cuts in 2023 While the strength in New Zealand’s economy will cause the RBNZ to hike rates further this year, we think the RBNZ will end its hiking cycle earlier than the financial markets anticipate. What’s more... 12th January 2022 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia- Wage growth will approach 3% by end-2022 A renewed tightening of the labour market next year means that wage growth will accelerate further. That pick-up will be underpinned by a stronger minimum wage hike, the lifting of caps on public... 21st October 2021 · 15 mins read