Are First Republic’s problems a sign of a wider credit crunch? Lots of smart people think so. Here’s Adam Hoyes of Capital Economics:
“Deposit outflows at First Republic Bank don’t tell us much more than we already knew about the state of the broader US banking sector. But it highlights the evidence of an ongoing credit crunch . . . Alongside the higher interest rates banks may need to pay on deposits to limit further outflows, we expect that their earnings will also come under pressure from higher loan loss provisions . . . In turn, that suggests to us that financial conditions are likely to remain tight . . . which would probably only exacerbate both the hit to activity and the situation in commercial real estate.”