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Gaza ceasefire should take pressure off Israel's credit rating, Fitch says

Analysts at Capital Economics said an effective ceasefire would have an "overwhelmingly positive" impact on Israel's public finances.

The research firm's Liam Peach said defence spending there rose to almost 9% of GDP last year, which is three percentage points higher than its average during the 2010s.

A reduction in military spending, a rebound in the economy, tax revenues and fiscal tightening measures as part of a 2025 budget worth 1.8% of GDP should narrow Israel's budget deficit, which came in at 7% of GDP last year.

"We think the conditions are in place for a deficit closer to 4% of GDP this year and for the public debt ratio to move back onto a declining path from 2026," Peach said.

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