Ultimately, however, the buck stops at Beijing as the required heavy lifting will need to come from fiscal, not just monetary, policy. Evans-Pritchard believes the aftermath of the Plenum suggests authorities understand the assignment, if only for the interim:
The post-Plenum press conference clearly signaled an intention to accelerate government borrowing and spending over the coming months. We remain hopeful that this will be sufficient to deliver some near-term improvement in economic momentum and are, therefore, sticking with our 2024 growth forecast of 5.5%. However, given the Third Plenum’s failure to adequately address the structural challenges facing China’s economy, we remain more downbeat on the medium-term outlook.