The near-10% surge in retail sales in March reflects a small fraction of the windfall from the $1,400 stimulus cheques, which were largely saved. At the same time, loosening restrictions are playing a key role, with spending in bars and restaurants now back within 5% of its pre-pandemic level. Assuming spending on other services did not rebound as rapidly last month, that’s consistent with real consumption growth of close to 3% in March, and 10% annualised in the first quarter overall.
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