The disappointing 1.2% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP growth, combined with the downward revisions to gains in the preceding two quarters, make a September interest rate hike much less likely. Over the past 12 months, the economy has expanded by only 1.2%. We are revising down our forecast for 2016 GDP growth to 1.5%, from 2.0%. We still anticipate a 2.0% gain in 2017.
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