The 1.2% m/m decline in durable goods orders in September was actually better than we expected, but only because the drag from the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft category wasn't as bad as we feared. The details of the report suggest that equipment investment expanded only modestly in the third quarter and could be even softer in the fourth quarter. The strong dollar, weak global demand, and the contraction in the energy and manufacturing sectors are all weighing on demand for capital goods.
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