The latest consensus forecast still puts first-quarter GDP growth as high as 1.8%
annualised, whereas our own calculations suggest it was no higher than 1.0%.
(See Chart below.) Furthermore, despite the higher consensus, we believe that
the risks to our own estimate lie mainly on the downside and we can't
completely rule out an actual
decline
in GDP. Consumption growth slowed to as
low as 1%, business investment may have shrunk and net external trade was
possibly a sizeable drag on overall GDP, as real imports rebounded sharply.
Growth should pick up again in the second quarter, particularly if energy prices
drop back, although a lot depends on how much fiscal tightening is eventually
implemented.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services