Since the previous Analyst our forecasts for housing transactions have been shaved, reflecting the weaker-than-expected data in recent months. However, our house price forecasts appear to be on track. We expect prices to end this year 5% lower and to drop a further 10% in 2011. The 2012 outlook, which we are including for the first time, is highly uncertain. We have pencilled in a 10% drop on the grounds that this returns the house price-to-earnings ratio (HPE) to its long-run average.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services