The economy is now estimated to have grown by 1.2%q/q in Q2, up slightly from the original estimate of 1.1%. However, that is likely to mark the peak for growth and we continue to think that a renewed labour market downturn is on the cards. Inflation is proving stubborn at present, but it is set to trend downwards over the next 12 to 18 months, not least because of weak wages growth.
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