Ten years on from the “Arab Spring” uprisings that afflicted large swathes of the Middle East and North Africa, hopes for a shift to democracy that would unleash reforms and transform the region’s economic prospects have failed to materialise. Even once the effects of the current crisis dissipate, productivity growth will remain weak and income convergence will be slow. This will continue to create fertile ground for social unrest, which will pose a key downside risk to the economic outlook.
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