We have revised up our end-2020 forecast for the prices of gold and silver to reflect the fact that we now expect roughly as much monetary easing by the Fed as the market. Meanwhile, we have trimmed our price forecasts for most base metals but maintain that the outlook for copper is better than for the others. Although we expect that the global economy will avoid an outright recession, growth is likely to be subdued next year. What’s more, the US-China trade war isn’t going away any time soon.
Otherwise, we retain our downbeat forecasts for steel and iron ore prices in 2020. This owes to the ongoing rebound in iron ore output following severe disruptions in early 2019, as well as our view that the strength in construction activity in China is on borrowed time.
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