Our Argentina Activity Indicator (AAI) suggests that the economy grew by around 3% y/y in the final quarter of last year – broadly unchanged from the pace of growth in Q3. But this pre-dates last month’s sharp devaluation in the official exchange rate. And while there are signs that a more orthodox approach to policymaking is now starting to emerge, we still suspect that mounting strains in the balance of payments will push Argentina into recession at some point this year.
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