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Argentina & the IMF: 22nd time lucky?

We suspect that Argentina’s government and the IMF will thrash out a new deal, the 22nd in their history, but we doubt that this will lead to the sustained turnaround in policymaking that is needed to put public debt onto a sustainable path. The upshot is that, even if there is a fresh IMF arrangement, another Argentine sovereign debt crisis in the second half of this decade seems more likely than not.

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