The trends in the opinion polls and in bookmakers’ odds suggest that a UK vote to leave the EU (“Brexit”) would now be a major surprise. Given this, the initial uncertainty caused by Brexitwould probably boost the prices of safe havens, including government bonds and gold, at the expense of equities, industrial commodities and emerging markets. Nonetheless, there are also good reasons to believe that Brexit would not result in the deep and prolonged global shock that many fear.
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