We expect oil prices to recover this year and next. This would exert greater upward pressure on inflation in the US than in the euro-zone and encourage the Fed to raise interest rates further while the ECB kept policy loose. This is reflected in our forecast that the yields of long-term US Treasuries will rise significantly, while those of long-term German Bunds will not increase as much.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services