The S&P 500 has now fallen 17% since its high on 21st July, and plummeted through our long-standing end-2011 forecast of 1,200. If the economic slowdown turns into a recession, we think the index could slide to around 850. But for now we think the economy is more likely to remain in a rut than fall into a recession despite the adverse feedback from the market upheaval. Accordingly, we do not expect to see a total meltdown in share prices and have decided to revise our end-year forecast for the S&P 500 only to 1,000, which would represent a further drop of just over 10% from current levels.
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