Globalisation has peaked. It may stall over the next decade, but a period of de-globalisation is increasingly likely. If this is driven by new technologies, it will not be bad for the world economy. But it could take a more malign, policy-driven, form. If we are right that the trade war reflects China’s strategic threat to the US, then some form of decoupling is inevitable – which will have an adverse effect on global GDP.
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