Recent developments in the euro-zone have raised the question of whether our central scenario of a limited form of currency union break-up - involving the departure of Greece and one or two of the other small peripheral economies - is too optimistic. However, we don’t feel the need to shift our position at this time. Not only are we still firmly on the pessimistic side of the consensus, but policymakers might yet come up with the action needed to prevent a bigger form of break-up.
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