The euro-zone economy has continued to recover despite the periphery’s troubles, with export growth holding up particularly well. It is too soon for the euro’s recent depreciation to have had an effect, but November’s rise in export orders in the trade-reliant economies of the north points to possible future benefits. But while this bodes well for the near term, we doubt that it can last. As global demand weakens and peripheral woes start to damage sentiment in the core, we still see the euro-zone recovery stalling next year.
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