Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: surveys point to a fresh pick-up in core inflation A raft of survey data suggests that last month’s fall in Hungarian core inflation is unlikely to mark the start of a downward trend – as the central bank anticipates. We expect that underlying price... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia stuck in the slow lane Russia's economy remained very soft in Q2, although it does at least seem to have dodged a technical recession – albeit by the skin of its teeth. Much of the weakness seems to be concentrated in the... 23rd July 2019 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish investment boom has further to run A further sharp rise in EU structural fund inflows will support strong Polish fixed investment growth over the next couple of years. But that won’t be enough to prevent overall GDP growth from slowing... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: current account risks mount Strong domestic demand means that Romania’s current account deficit, which is already among the largest of any major EM, is likely to widen further. This makes the leu increasingly vulnerable to a... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional recovery to underwhelm Regional GDP growth probably hit a trough in the first half of the year, but the recovery from here on will be sluggish. Turkey is only likely to pull out of its recent recession slowly, and growth in... 9th July 2019 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The further fall in Russian inflation to 4.7% y/y last month, coming alongside recent dovish comments from the central bank, has prompted us to pencil in a 25bp rate cut (to 7.25%) at the next Board... 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly OPEC deal won’t derail Russia, lira rally may be short-lived The rollover of OPEC’s oil production quotas – announced this week – will be an unhelpful headwind for Russia’s economy, but it is unlikely to prevent growth from picking up in the second half of 2019... 5th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC continues to strike a dovish note The relatively dovish stance adopted by Poland’s MPC in the communications accompanying today’s interest rate meeting supports our view that monetary policy settings will be left unchanged until the... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish shift on Polish MPC won’t result in rate hike A rise in inflation has led five of the ten Polish MPC members to suggest that interest rates may soon need to be raised. But we doubt that any of the five more dovish members, including Governor... 2nd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) June’s PMI data point to a marked slowdown in industrial output growth in Central Europe over the coming quarters. Elsewhere, Turkey’s latest PMI reading suggests that, following a disappointing Q2... 1st July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) June’s set of ESIs suggests that aggregate GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) remained at around 4% y/y in Q2. But over the coming quarters, problems in the euro-zone are likely to take a... 27th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia and Turkey struggling, CEE still booming Recent activity data suggest that recoveries in Emerging Europe’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have been disappointing. In Russia, where the economy expanded by a meagre 0.5% y/y in Q1... 25th June 2019 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s tightening cycle not over yet We still think that further monetary tightening lies in store in Hungary over the next eighteen months. But dovish communications accompanying today’s monetary policy meeting, and the reluctance to... 25th June 2019 · 3 mins read
