The debate over inflation has become polarised between those who expect a return to the 1970s and those who believe inflation is still dead. The reality is more nuanced and inflation outcomes are likely to vary between countries. A new era of higher inflation is most likely to emerge in the US and perhaps the UK. But we think inflation will remain extremely low in the euro-zone, Japan and China. In those countries where we anticipate a sustained rise in inflation, the most likely outcome is that it increases to moderately higher rates of 3-4%. But risks are generally skewed to the upside and there is a real possibility that inflation increases to a much higher rate that would, in time, necessitate a more substantial tightening of policy.
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