Our calculations indicate that real GDP did at least expand in October, albeit by a lacklustre 0.1% m/m. That should ease fears of a double-dip recession, after the unexpected contraction in September. Nevertheless, this all adds up to a soft start to fourth-quarter GDP growth, which likely advanced by between 1.5% and 2% annualised. The over-valued Canadian dollar, persistent weakness in US housing construction and auto sales, and moderating domestic demand growth all point to fairly modest growth in 2011.
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