The belief that China is on an unstoppable march to global economic supremacy has long held sway in markets, and in policymaking circles in Washington and Beijing.

But Capital Economics has been warning for several years that China’s economy faces structural headwinds that will only become more pronounced as the 2020s progress, and that these mean China probably won’t ever overtake the US economy on a sustained basis.

Even as some of the world’s biggest institutions and most prominent think tanks continue to forecast China as number one by mid-century, our unique insight – informed by our proprietary China economic indicators and collaboration between our China, US, Market and Long Run economic teams – shows the extent to which China’s economy will ultimately fall short.

In light of China’s disastrous economic performance in 2022, are markets finally coming round to our view? Download our free report to find out why China will likely remain the world's number two.