Higher taxes for businesses, a lingering drag from the previous rises in interest rates and the uncertain global backdrop will mean GDP grows by only 0.8% in 2025 rather than the consensus forecast of 1.0%. That should help CPI inflation fall below 2.0% in 2027 and allow the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 4.50% now to 3.50% by early 2026, rather than to 4.00% as investors anticipate.