With a smaller boost from mortgage rates on the cards, we now expect house prices in the year to Q4 to rise by 3.5% in 2026 (5.0% previously) and by 3.0% in 2027 (3.5% previously). What's more, tax rises of around £27bn in the Budget on the 26th November, including potentially on property, could further trim the recovery in housing activity and house price growth, particularly in the most expensive regions.