UK Economics Which measure of GDP should we believe? The divergence between the quarterly and the monthly measures of GDP have left it unclear whether the economy is still languishing at about 2.0% below its pre-pandemic level or if it is nearing that... 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Mixed messages, but BoE clear rates won’t rise far next year It is fair to say that the Bank of England’s communications on the timing of the first interest rate hike have been muddled. But the Bank has been much clearer in its warning to the financial markets... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Fiscal rules are there to be broken The Chancellor’s new fiscal rules could help to convince voters and investors of the Conservative Party’s fiscal discipline. But with eleven rules having come and gone in the past seven years and with... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Sep.) The tepid rise in consumer credit lends support to our view that economic growth slowed to little more than a crawl in September. Against the backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases and higher inflation, we... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics BoE fast out of the blocks on rates, but won’t go the distance We now think there’s a high chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates from 0.10% to 0.25% at the meeting on Thursday 4 th November. It may then raise rates to 0.50% in... 28th October 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Budget October 2021 – OBR delivers for Sunak This Budget was perhaps more notable for what the Chancellor didn’t do rather than what he did. The OBR handed Rishi Sunak a significant upgrade to its forecasts for the public finances but, while the... 27th October 2021 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Autumn Budget 2021 Checklist We are resending this Budget Checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Budget. It is designed to help clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced... 27th October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Autumn Budget 2021 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key economic and public finances forecasts announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm on Wednesday 27 th October and to provide some... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Fiscal policy back in focus The upward shift in investors’ interest rate expectations over the past month has been remarkable. While it is impossible to predict the timing of the first rate hike with any certainty, we have more... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Sep.) & Flash PMIs (Oct.) The fifth consecutive fall in retail sales in September, together with signs that non-retail spending was also weak, supports our view that the economic recovery slowed to a crawl last month. But... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Budget Preview – Restraint now, largesse later Despite the improving outlook for the public finances, the rumours that the Chancellor will set himself some fairly stringent fiscal rules suggest that there’s not going to be a net giveaway in the... 21st October 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Sep.) The dip in CPI inflation in September feels a bit like the lull before the storm as we expect inflation to jump to close to 4.0% in October and to between 4.5% and 5.0% by April next year. As such... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics A taste of stagflation The UK economy is experiencing a taste of stagflation. This won’t be anywhere near as severe or as persistent as in the 1970s. But for the next six months, the worsening product and labour shortages... 19th October 2021 · 27 mins read
UK Economics How would the economy cope with electricity shortages? There is an outside risk that the UK could face some limited short-term rationing of electricity this winter if weather conditions were to be unfavourable. This risk isn’t yet significant enough to... 18th October 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in August confirms that the rapid gains in output, which in just 16 months lifted GDP from being 25.1% below its February 2020 pre-pandemic peak to 0.8% below, are now behind... 13th October 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Aug./Sep.) The further strengthening of the labour market in August may prompt some members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to put more weight on the upside risks to inflation rather than the downside... 12th October 2021 · 3 mins read
