US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Expect huge divergence in performance between metros We expect there will continue to be major divergence between the winning and losing metros. We think the major markets and tech-centric western markets will continue to fare poorly thanks to low... 19th December 2024 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Nov. 2024) The decline in housing starts in November was entirely due to weakness in multifamily construction, which outweighed a post-hurricane rebound in single-family construction. The rise in permits to a... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Rental growth the key driver of the property recovery The recovery in property values is underway. But we think it will be a weak one, even though several European central banks, including the ECB, are forecast to cut interest rates to a lower level than... 12th December 2024 · 27 mins read
US Housing Market Update Where are the residential construction layoffs? Residential construction employment has been performing much better than the slump in construction over the past year might have implied. We suspect that is because job losses in the new home... 25th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Oct. 2024) The decline in housing starts in October was exactly as we had expected given the hit to construction in the South from recent hurricanes and should partially reverse in November. Beyond this, we... 19th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Trump win puts brakes on housing recovery While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Oct. 24) After a strong September the headline CIPS construction PMI dropped back to 54.3 in October, although that still points to an expansion of construction activity. 6th November 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Sep. 2024) The small fall in housing starts in September was entirely due to the multi-family segment, whereas single-family starts rose to a five-month high. While starts will probably weaken this month due to... 18th October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Miami apartment market to feel the heat over 2025-28 Apartment markets are turning a corner, and we now expect the sector to outperform over the five year forecast. As new supply drops back from the second half of next year, we expect a mixture of... 1st October 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update New China stimulus won’t lift commodity demand While the announcement of new stimulus measures by Chinese officials coincided with increases in many commodity prices, the package does not materially alter the outlook for China’s commodity demand... 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Industrial to outperform as muted recovery gets underway After two disappointing years, commercial property values have stabilised. However, the recovery is set to be weak. We think yield falls in the coming years will be small compared to previous... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Houston rockets to the top of the office rankings Offices are still in for a tough few years, with markets like San Francisco, LA and Seattle likely to come out of the downturn with values down 55% or more from their 2019 peaks. However, there are... 20th September 2024 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Aug. 2024) The large rise in housing starts in August was due to a rebound in starts in the south, confirming that the July slump was a temporary disruption caused by Hurricane Beryl. The increase in permits... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office conversion proceeding faster than expected We have been sceptical of the viability of conversion of excess office space into residential units. But the latest figures indicate that, despite marginal financials, there may have been more... 1st August 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Jun. 2024) The rise in housing starts and building permits in June is not as good as it seems at first glance, as it was driven by gains in the volatile multi-family sector, which we think will prove temporary... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston and Chicago top the apartment rankings Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted... 2nd July 2024 · 6 mins read
