Commodities Update

History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas

Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation...

12th August 2024 · 4 mins read

What slowdown scares tell us about the global economic hierarchy

Commodities Weekly

EU natural gas prices chart their own course

It was no surprise to see the global commodity price index fall and rise alongside the contortions in equity markets this week. But commodity prices have not all been in the same boat; whereas some...

9th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Geopolitical tensions ratchet up risks for Israel

An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East risks delaying Israel’s economic recovery even further, adding to pressure on the country's strained public finances, and pushing up risk premia on...

2nd August 2024 · 10 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tensions ratcheting up, Egypt-IMF, Saudi Q2 data

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are on the brink of boiling over after Israel’s assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas officials this week. It remains to be seen what the response...

1st August 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The macro impact of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict

The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to...

29th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine?

Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might...

23rd July 2024 · 16 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Trump’s return and the Ukraine war – Key macro and market implications

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Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November.

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and Saudi-US relations, IMF growth downgrades

Donald Trump has laid out his intentions of restoring warm ties with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election, with the intention of pulling Saudi back into the US’s orbit in a fracturing global economy...

18th July 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Budget and geopolitics in focus

The full Budget for FY24/25 - which will be unveiled on 23rd July - will provide an important indication of how much the BJP is willing to concede to its coalition partners. Meanwhile, developments...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Modi in Moscow: old friends, new context

Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Moscow next week will irk the West, but it should be read as a sign of India seeking to reap economic gains from its non-aligned status rather than an effort to position...

5th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of...

4th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia and the possible implications of MbS as king

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not...

1st July 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

The US election and EMs

Under a second Trump administration, the imposition of large tariffs on China would hurts its economy but could speed up investment in manufacturing capacity elsewhere. However, a broader global...

28th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Climate Economics Focus

How big a blow would Trump deal to green policy?

A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris...

25th June 2024 · 13 mins read