Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its...

5th September 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Risks to the global economy: your questions answered

We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update...

5th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Update

FOCAC: Africa-China relations in a fracturing world

Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region...

4th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah

The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to...

30th August 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Normal gold service resumes; OPEC+’s conundrum

While the stonking rally in gold prices earlier this year was at odds with traditional market drivers, the latest leg up in gold prices – which saw the nominal price reach yet another fresh record...

30th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Libya’s crisis, Egypt’s central bank meeting

The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the...

29th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, CBRT’s forward guidance

Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia continued this week and although developments are highly uncertain at this stage, it has big implications for the war. On balance, we think it could delay any...

23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Update

Recycling’s role in securing critical minerals and metals

China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way...

21st August 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

Global Drop-In: Towards 2025 – Risks to the global economic and market outlook

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After a summer of extraordinary economic, market and political developments, what can investors expect through the end of 2024?

Emerging Europe Economics Update

War in Gaza still holding Israel’s economy back

Israel’s economy slowed more than expected in Q2 as weak investment and supply constraints continued to hold back activity. A ceasefire to halt the conflict in Gaza would clearly be positive for the...

19th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire

The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region...

19th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing

The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall...

14th August 2024 · 17 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Jordan’s tourism sector hit hard by spillovers of war

Jordan’s economy has been among the hardest hit from the indirect spillovers of the war in Gaza. While severe balance of payments of strains are likely to be avoided, GDP growth will suffer as the key...

14th August 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing

Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs...

13th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas

Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation...

12th August 2024 · 4 mins read