Europe Economics Update

The impact of a Trump victory on Europe

A Trump victory in the US election would accelerate the structural shifts that are a major challenge for Europe including rising protectionism, reduced export opportunities to China and the US, and...

22nd October 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Current accounts, BRICS preview, Sinwar death

The current account data released across the region over the past week show that external positions have continued to improve in some countries (notably Turkey), while in others they are deteriorating...

18th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MbS skips on BRICS+ summit but holds fruitful Egypt talks

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) decision to skip next week’s BRICS+ summit adds to the signs that the Kingdom feels that its shift towards China’s sphere of influence may have gone too...

17th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation

Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing...

4th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Risks to oil supply take centre stage

With all eyes on the extent and focus of Israel’s retaliation against Iran, the risk premium is going to dominate near-term proceedings in the oil market; depending on how things pan out, prices could...

4th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the...

3rd October 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

War escalates; all eyes on Israel

Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory...

3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Update

Spike in oil risk premium masks fundamental frailties

Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider...

2nd October 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Romania’s fiscal risks, Russian economy under strain

Romania’s fiscal watchdog warned this week that the country’s budget deficit could come in a lot wider than the government originally planned this year at 8.0% of GDP, and we think that investors may...

27th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil policy, Egypt’s debt return, Israel-Lebanon

Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, which would provide a mechanical lift to GDP and the Kingdom is in a strong position to weather any...

26th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Flooding in Central Europe, Israel’s new phase of war

The flooding across Central Europe over the past week will likely weigh on activity in September, but we think that the economic impact will be relatively short-lived and won’t shift the monetary...

20th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Global Economics Update

Five key themes in world trade

In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is...

19th September 2024 · 6 mins read

China Economics Update

The differences for China in Harris versus Trump

A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and...

12th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

Is gold priced for perfection?

With a long and varied list of supportive drivers to choose from, we have raised our end-2025 gold price forecast to $2,750 per oz. But even though we now forecast gold prices to end next year about...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

New US export controls will be harder to overcome

The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it...

9th September 2024 · 6 mins read