Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Commodities caught in the geopolitical crossfire As the ramp-up in US sanctions against Russia's energy sector has demonstrated, commodities are increasingly being caught in the crossfire of broader geopolitical machinations and tariff policy. The... 17th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Ceasefire in Gaza, Egypt’s fiscal future The provisional ceasefire deal in Gaza, subject to final approval from both sides (which Israel's PM Netanyahu has called into question today), could mark a major de-escalatory step. For the... 16th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has b een updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the... 15th January 2025 · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: better placed to face Trump now? Mexico is once again bracing for trade protectionism in the US. And while it staved off tariffs in the first round of the trade war, on balance we don’t think it’s in as strong a negotiating position... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Trump, tariffs and global supply chains If Donald Trump were to impose a universal 10% tariff on US imports, we wouldn’t expect widespread reshoring of manufacturing production back to the US. And if it were accompanied by a 60% tariff on... 14th January 2025 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trudeau and Trump share their truths The power vacuum created by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation comes at a bad time, with President-elect Donald Trump ratcheting up his threats against Canada, raising the risk that the next... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Trump’s plan to end the war – is the timeline shifting? Expectations for an imminent end to Russia’s war in Ukraine once Trump takes office as US President on 20th January took a knock this week, following an FT report and statements by officials... 10th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Panama Canal, Brazil’s shrinking trade surplus While it’s hard to know how seriously we should take President-elect Trump’s comments this week that the US should re-acquire the Panama Canal, it does add to the evidence that the incoming... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique unrest, China courting Africa Mozambique’s political unrest looks set to continue following opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane's return and his claim that he is the country’s rightful president. Eyes will next turn to ruling... 10th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Assessing the risks to energy prices While upside risks to energy prices have garnered plenty of attention in recent months, there are several downside risks that are worth noting. Although we would characterise the downside risks –... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Trump, Tariffs, and the 51st State US President-elect Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Canada suggests we should take his tariff threats seriously. We already assume that Trump includes Canada in a likely 10%... 9th January 2025 · 19 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump 2.0 – US and Asia macro implications 1736841600 2025 has started with a bang as bonds have sold off amid growth and inflation fears – and the operating environment may only get more tricky from here.
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) The improvement in activity growth in China has been one reason for more bullish sentiment in the oil market around the turn of the year. However, the stimulus-fuelled cyclical upturn in China’s... 8th January 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update What do we mean by geopolitical blocs? The Cold War was defined by geopolitical blocs – the Soviet or Eastern bloc against the Western bloc. Geopolitics retreated with the collapse of the Soviet Union. The period from the early-1990s to... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Trump and the implications for global fracturing Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its... 7th January 2025 · 6 mins read
