Europe Economics Weekly

Europe and geopolitics, Germany’s debt brake

Ten days after the US presidential election we outline the key implications for Europe, ranging from higher tariffs and defence spending to a faster “decoupling” from China. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz...

15th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy

The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening...

14th November 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Update

Trump Tariffs, retaliation, concessions and trade deals

The UK is not as exposed to US import tariffs as many other economies and we suspect any resulting reduction in UK GDP would be very small. That said, the car and pharmaceutical sectors are the most...

14th November 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Trump and the war in Ukraine

Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the...

14th November 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Update

Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market

It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Trump win creates headache for Bank of Canada

This week's labour market data and Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada's October policy meeting were both overshadowed by Trump's win in the US election given its potential impact on the...

8th November 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

How would China retaliate?

China’s exporters are still thriving and may do even better in the near term as customers prepare for big increases in tariffs next year. China’s leadership has had plenty of time, and the experience...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics

The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs...

7th November 2024 · 8 mins read

China Economics Update

Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & China

Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP. The...

7th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary back in recession, War in Ukraine

The Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe this week continued a bleak run of activity data for the region, with Hungary’s economy significantly underperforming expectations. The risks to our GDP growth...

1st November 2024 · 8 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Political vacuum won’t deter year-end rate hike

It now looks likely that the existing LDP/Komeito coalition will remain in power via a partial alliance with the Democratic Party for the People. While there's a risk that the DPP demands policy...

1st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The US election and implications for MENA

Next week’s US presidential election will have major ramifications for the Middle East and North Africa. Attention will probably focus on how either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump tackle the Israel...

31st October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s retail sales shocker, BRICS and the dollar

The substantial drop in Polish retail sales in September has been interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the engine of the economy is beginning to fail, but we think that these fears are...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Trump trade comes for gold; palladium surges

Having behaved “normally” over the summer, gold prices have slipped back into anti-traditional-driver mode in recent weeks, seemingly caught up in a wider “Trump trade”. One can – and plenty surely...

25th October 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

A shift in India’s geopolitical alignment?

It might be tempting to view recent developments - including a breakthrough in talks with China on the disputed Himalayan border and the diplomatic spat with Canada - as signalling that India is...

25th October 2024 · 4 mins read