Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

War escalates; all eyes on Israel

Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory...

3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Update

Spike in oil risk premium masks fundamental frailties

Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider...

2nd October 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Romania’s fiscal risks, Russian economy under strain

Romania’s fiscal watchdog warned this week that the country’s budget deficit could come in a lot wider than the government originally planned this year at 8.0% of GDP, and we think that investors may...

27th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil policy, Egypt’s debt return, Israel-Lebanon

Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, which would provide a mechanical lift to GDP and the Kingdom is in a strong position to weather any...

26th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Flooding in Central Europe, Israel’s new phase of war

The flooding across Central Europe over the past week will likely weigh on activity in September, but we think that the economic impact will be relatively short-lived and won’t shift the monetary...

20th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Global Economics Update

Five key themes in world trade

In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is...

19th September 2024 · 6 mins read

China Economics Update

The differences for China in Harris versus Trump

A second Trump term would bring greater uncertainty to US-China relations, challenges to a global economic order that has helped China prosper, higher tariffs (probably) on Chinese goods, and...

12th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

Is gold priced for perfection?

With a long and varied list of supportive drivers to choose from, we have raised our end-2025 gold price forecast to $2,750 per oz. But even though we now forecast gold prices to end next year about...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

New US export controls will be harder to overcome

The new US controls on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment will slow China’s ability to expand its advanced chip-making capacity. While the immediate economic impact will be small, it...

9th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA GDP and surveys, FOCAC concludes

The slump in the South African manufacturing PMI provided some worrying signs that the rebound seen in the Q2 GDP figures didn’t last. But the PMI appears to be an outlier; other survey data paint a...

6th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its...

5th September 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Risks to the global economy: your questions answered

We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update...

5th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Update

FOCAC: Africa-China relations in a fracturing world

Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region...

4th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah

The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to...

30th August 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Normal gold service resumes; OPEC+’s conundrum

While the stonking rally in gold prices earlier this year was at odds with traditional market drivers, the latest leg up in gold prices – which saw the nominal price reach yet another fresh record...

30th August 2024 · 4 mins read