China Economics Weekly

How would China retaliate?

China’s exporters are still thriving and may do even better in the near term as customers prepare for big increases in tariffs next year. China’s leadership has had plenty of time, and the experience...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics

The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs...

7th November 2024 · 8 mins read

China Economics Update

Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & China

Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP. The...

7th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary back in recession, War in Ukraine

The Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe this week continued a bleak run of activity data for the region, with Hungary’s economy significantly underperforming expectations. The risks to our GDP growth...

1st November 2024 · 8 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Political vacuum won’t deter year-end rate hike

It now looks likely that the existing LDP/Komeito coalition will remain in power via a partial alliance with the Democratic Party for the People. While there's a risk that the DPP demands policy...

1st November 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The US election and implications for MENA

Next week’s US presidential election will have major ramifications for the Middle East and North Africa. Attention will probably focus on how either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump tackle the Israel...

31st October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s retail sales shocker, BRICS and the dollar

The substantial drop in Polish retail sales in September has been interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the engine of the economy is beginning to fail, but we think that these fears are...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Trump trade comes for gold; palladium surges

Having behaved “normally” over the summer, gold prices have slipped back into anti-traditional-driver mode in recent weeks, seemingly caught up in a wider “Trump trade”. One can – and plenty surely...

25th October 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

A shift in India’s geopolitical alignment?

It might be tempting to view recent developments - including a breakthrough in talks with China on the disputed Himalayan border and the diplomatic spat with Canada - as signalling that India is...

25th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico and Trump’s vehicle tariff threat

Recent threats by Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Mexico’s vehicle sector could just be pre-election bluster or an attempt to get concessions from Mexico. But if implemented, they would deal a big...

23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

The impact of a Trump victory on Europe

A Trump victory in the US election would accelerate the structural shifts that are a major challenge for Europe including rising protectionism, reduced export opportunities to China and the US, and...

22nd October 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Current accounts, BRICS preview, Sinwar death

The current account data released across the region over the past week show that external positions have continued to improve in some countries (notably Turkey), while in others they are deteriorating...

18th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MbS skips on BRICS+ summit but holds fruitful Egypt talks

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) decision to skip next week’s BRICS+ summit adds to the signs that the Kingdom feels that its shift towards China’s sphere of influence may have gone too...

17th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation

Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing...

4th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Risks to oil supply take centre stage

With all eyes on the extent and focus of Israel’s retaliation against Iran, the risk premium is going to dominate near-term proceedings in the oil market; depending on how things pan out, prices could...

4th October 2024 · 4 mins read