Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & the trade war, Brazil’s fiscal malaise Mexico appears to have found the off-ramp after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from the country on day one of his presidency. Even so, given Mexico’s... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past... 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China: Fentanyl curbs, CNY intervention, tech milestone China is likely to intensify its crackdown on fentanyl in a bid to avoid the additional 10% tariff threatened by Trump. The PBOC has drawn a line in the sand for the renminbi around 7.33/$ but would... 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already... 28th November 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, Saudi budget, OPEC+ The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. But the economic spillovers for Egypt and Jordan are likely to... 28th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update Insufficient climate finance risks supply hit in EMs The failure of COP29 to deliver on ambitious climate finance targets means that developing economies still lack sufficient low-cost finance for climate adaption. That leaves them reliant on debt-based... 27th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow... 27th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine escalation, CBRT rate cut approaching? Tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated this week, with Ukraine using Western-provided long-range weapons on Russian territory and Russia launching an “experimental” ballistic missile against... 22nd November 2024 · 8 mins read
Climate Economics Update What have we learnt about Trump’s climate policy? Unsurprisingly, a second Trump presidency will support oil and gas production while rolling back environmental regulations. The fate of the Inflation Reduction Act is less certain, given that the... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Marco Rubio, Latin America & fracturing US President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Mark Rubio as secretary of state suggests that – after years of neglect – Latin America will play a more prominent role in US foreign policy in the next... 15th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe and geopolitics, Germany’s debt brake Ten days after the US presidential election we outline the key implications for Europe, ranging from higher tariffs and defence spending to a faster “decoupling” from China. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening... 14th November 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump Tariffs, retaliation, concessions and trade deals This report was originally published on 14th November 2024. President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China raises the risk that at some point the UK will also be subject to... 14th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
