Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for... 26th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Event China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment 1741186800 This year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is taking place against a difficult backdrop for China’s economy; stimulus efforts have so far had only a fleeting impact on activ
China Economics Update Here’s what China can offer to buy from the US President Trump has signalled that he is open to the possibility of a new trade deal with China, though probably not before tensions rachet up further. This would likely involve China committing to... 25th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Focus Assessing the post-Ukraine war energy landscape While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels... 24th February 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update German election: your questions answered Following yesterday’s federal election in Germany, this Update answers questions raised by clients in our on-line briefing (which can be viewed here). 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: What would a “dirty deal” for Russia-Ukraine mean? The US-Russia meeting this week to seek an end to the war in Ukraine has clearly raised the possibility that a peace deal is negotiated quickly and on terms more favourable to Russia (a so called... 21st February 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ exporters struggling even without higher US tariffs Euro-zone exports have performed poorly for several years and the outlook is poor even if the EU does not get into a trade war with the US. We suspect that US tariffs will be only a small additional... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: OPEC+ in a bind; US-Russia-Ukraine & energy markets Conflicting reports this week around OPEC+'s plan regarding unwinding its voluntary output cuts from April highlight the risks of yet another delay. While any delay would tighten the oil market at the... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Talks between the US and Russia have raised expectation about an end to the war in Ukraine... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: Trump, Putin, the Ukraine war and the European defence question 1740063600 Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European corridors of power with his moves to re-engage with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and his threats to
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump keeps Europe on its toes All eyes were on Washington this week as President Trump rung the bells for the next phase of a trade war with the EU and sidestepped European leaders with a possible Ukraine peace deal. While... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Unpacking the Trump-Putin call The phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin this week and comments by US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth caught many by surprise, but these developments have not materially changed our view... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs tirade becomes more troubling for the UK We still believe that tariffs are unlikely to reduce UK GDP by as much as some fear and that the UK is much less exposed than a lot of other economies. But the growing possibility of the UK facing... 14th February 2025 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Reciprocal tariffs underscore Trump threat for China China is among a minority of countries that apply lower tariff rates on the US than vice versa, so it is not as obviously exposed to reciprocal tariffs as many others. But President Trump’s latest... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
