Event Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk 8th July 2024, 11:00AM BST Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down? Our senior Europe and Markets economists held this...
Europe Economics Update French bond sell-off could get worse We see three scenarios for French fiscal policy in the coming months. Even in the best case the spread of French over German bond yields remains higher than before Macron called an early election. In... 20th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Political uncertainty to hit French property values Investor concerns about the upcoming snap legislative elections have pushed up French government bond yields and we think they will rise further over the rest of the year. This has worsened the... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A poor week for French bonds and equities French government bonds and equities have sold off this week, and the euro has weakened. A lot of bad news now seems priced in, but we suspect the discount on French assets is here to stay. 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France risk and ”reverse contagion” It is difficult to know how radical (or reckless) France’s next government will be on fiscal policy, but the risks to France’s public finances have certainly risen since the snap election was called... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update How radical would Le Pen’s party be in office? France’s National Rally has advocated policies that would increase the budget deficit and provoke clashes with the EU. During the election campaign, it will probably moderate these views, but the... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Political uncertainty in France unnerves markets French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap elections has triggered a negative reaction in markets, not only in France but also in the rest of the EU. Even though the far-right... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France early election, EU elections Support for the centrists has held up quite well in European elections but this was overshadowed by the jump in votes for the far-right in France and President Macron’s surprise decision to dissolve... 10th June 2024 · 3 mins read
