Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see more trouble ahead for French OATs The spread between 10-year French and German government bond yields has risen again, and we forecast that it will continue to trend up next year. 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation rather than growth likely to be key for EZ bonds We think government bond yields in the euro-zone will rebound a bit, particularly in those countries, like France, where public finances are concerning. 23rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Focus EZ spreads on different paths after French election We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall. 31st July 2024 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily ECB overshadowed by French politics Investors’ expectations for ECB rate cuts have not changed much over recent months and today’s meeting did little to change that. Instead, euro-zone assets have been influenced more by French politics... 18th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update What next for France? The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very... 8th July 2024 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Wait-and-see in markets as France avoids far-right PM The surprising results of the French legislative elections have not triggered much of a market reaction. While investors appear to have been relieved by the far-right National Rally (RN)’s failure to... 8th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Second round results of France’s parliamentary election The exit polls for the second-round of France’s legislative election are certainly a surprise. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) appears to have become the biggest group in parliament, while... 7th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gridlock likely in France, ECB officials eye July pause The prospect of a hung parliament in France suggests the country is headed for political gridlock and somewhat looser fiscal policy but that a large-scale fiscal expansion probably won’t materialise... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily French election first-round relief rally might not last Investors have welcomed the broadly unsurprising results of the first round of the French legislative elections, but the discount on French financial assets is still there and, in our view, likely to... 1st July 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update First round results of France’s parliamentary election The preliminary results of the first round of voting are broadly in line with the final opinion polls, showing that Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition has lost out to both the left and right. But a... 30th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Three scenarios for after the French election With France heading to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the legislative election, the latest polls show a small uptick in support for the National Rally (RN) and French bond spreads have... 28th June 2024 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing French election risk for the euro The upcoming French election continues to loom over euro-zone financial markets and the euro. We think it would take a worst case scenario in which France’s fiscal outlook worsens materially to... 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How might the ECB respond to a French fiscal crisis? If the results of France’s election, or actions of the next French government, trigger contagion to other euro-zone countries’ bond markets, the ECB could respond by purchasing their bonds using the... 25th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q&A on French election: politics, economics, markets This Update summarises the answers to some of the questions which clients raised in our recent online briefing about the forthcoming French legislative elections. The questions are divided into three... 24th June 2024 · 8 mins read
