India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The manufacturing PMI reading held steady in September, but this barely captured the impact of the recent large-scale corporate tax cut. Looser fiscal policy and the likelihood of further monetary... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low India’s current account deficit narrowed a touch in the four quarters to Q2 and looks unlikely to balloon any time soon as imports of key commodities remain in check. Meanwhile, FDI inflows edged up... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up our forecasts for Indian equities We have revised up our forecasts for India’s Sensex equity index following the corporate tax reform there. And more generally, we expect it to be one of the best performers among EM stock markets over... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly The fallout from the fiscal bonanza The large-scale fiscal stimulus announced last Friday has continued to reverberate in markets this week. We are revising up our end-2019 equity market forecasts to reflect the recent surge, though we... 27th September 2019 · 4 mins read
RBI Watch MPC likely to revert to “traditional” cut The key question ahead of the MPC meeting that concludes on Friday 4th October is not whether the committee will opt to cut rates again, but rather by how much. We think it will jettison the... 26th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Will India be a $5 trillion economy by 2025? Since securing re-election this year, the Modi government has made it a formal aim to almost double the size of India’s economy to US$5trn by March 2025. In our view, the government is likely to fall... 23rd September 2019 · 11 mins read
India Economics Update Four key points as Sitharaman loosens the purse strings Fiscal loosening measures announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman today are likely to provide a small boost to economic growth over the coming quarters, but significantly increase the chances... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Weak export growth to persist New tax breaks announced by the government and the recent weakness of the rupee will do little to support India’s exporters, who will find it hard to capitalise given subdued global demand and... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
India Economics Focus A US$5trn economy by 2025? Since securing re-election this year, the Modi government has made it a formal aim to almost double the size of India’s economy to US$5trn by March 2025. In our view, the government is likely to fall... 17th September 2019 · 11 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but even so, the continued weakness in the headline rate in August increases the likelihood of another rate... 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Goods trade deficit set to remain contained The goods trade deficit was virtually unchanged in August and, even if export growth stays weak, we think that the shortfall will remain small over the coming quarters. 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly The anatomy of the vehicle sale slump Data released this week showing a further slump in passenger vehicle sales growth in August partly reflects broader weakness in consumption. But with industry-specific factors also at play and other... 13th September 2019 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) Headline consumer price inflation held steady in August and remained comfortably below the RBI’s target of 4.0%. This is the last set of CPI data that will be released before the MPC next meets in... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Gold losing its shine, equities have further to fall Gold prices remain close to record highs in rupee terms, but the latest numbers on gold import volumes should assuage any concerns over the impact on the external position. Meanwhile, the Sensex has... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in August, due in large part to a renewed pick up in food inflation. But it will remain comfortably below the RBI’s 4.0% target. And given the... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
