India Economics Update Trade data provide cold comfort The slight easing in the y/y contraction in goods exports and imports in May supports evidence from elsewhere that the worst has now passed for the economy. But both remain extremely weak, and a sharp... 16th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation data for May show a broad-based easing in price pressures. This reinforces our view that inflation shouldn’t be a barrier to further policy loosening, and we expect the RBI... 15th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Industry past the worst but recovery will be slow Industrial output ground to a halt in April but high-frequency indicators including electricity consumption and air pollution levels suggest that activity has edged up since then. However, lasting... 15th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) 12th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Conditions slowly improve, interest waiver dispute The gradual loosening of strict containment measures has provided a slight boost to activity, but with new COVID-19 cases still rising sharply, the recovery is likely to be slower and bumpier than in... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are lockdowns being eased too soon? Policymakers in the likes of India, much of Latin America and parts of Africa are easing lockdowns even though the coronavirus is still spreading rapidly. This may be less economically damaging than... 11th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early evidence of major fiscal damage Recently released government budget data for April suggest that fiscal deficits in many EMs, including in Brazil, Mexico, India and Turkey, may be running at 10-20% of GDP. This won’t cause a spate of... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at EM financial conditions Financial conditions have eased substantially across major EMs over the past few months, but we doubt that this fading headwind will turn into a major tailwind for activity in the coming quarters. 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update South Asia and the lockdown dilemma Lockdowns are being eased in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh without any sign that coronavirus infections are being brought under control. Economic recoveries will face greater headwinds than in places... 9th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Which countries will rebound fastest? The high-frequency data that we track suggest that while economic activity is picking up across most of the region, the pace of recovery varies significantly by country. We expect China, Singapore... 8th June 2020 · 11 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest further loosening likely The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s late May policy meeting – in which it trimmed both the repo and reverse repo rates – show that the MPC has become markedly more bearish on the outlook for economic... 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Downgrade, locusts, activity edging up The downgrade of India’s sovereign rating by Moody’s this week had little impact on financial markets, and we think that bond yields will remain close to their current low level over the coming months... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of steeper EM yield curves? The steepening of EM local currency government bond yield curves since the crisis began in mid-February largely reflects a fall in short-term rates, but in some cases, like Brazil, Mexico and South... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation should not constrain policymakers Daily price data give a strong indication that food inflation dropped in May, most likely as supply disruptions eased a touch and agricultural activity was allowed to resume. With global oil prices... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (May) Interpreting the PMI surveys in the current environment is tricky, but the small rise in May’s services PMI suggests to us that activity has edged up very slightly. Nevertheless, fears over infection... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Reforms through the back door Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
