Global Economics Update

Your latest monetary policy questions answered

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the outlook for monetary policy following the US Fed and Bank of England policy meetings and comments by the ECB’s Christine Lagarde. (See a...

25th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Steel Production (Feb. 2024)

The robust increase in global steel production since the beginning of the year probably has a bit further to run since there are few signs that the two largest producers – China and India – will slow...

22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Some global market implications of BoJ tightening

Japan’s exit from negative interest rates could place some upward pressure on bond term premia elsewhere, but we don’t think it will prove too disruptive to markets even if the BoJ ultimately hikes a...

22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs: Euro-zone lagging behind at the end of Q1

The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, while the UK and Japan seem to be pulling out of recession heading into Q2. The survey indicators of price pressures...

21st March 2024 · 3 mins read

FX Markets Update

A further rise in the US dollar looks unlikely to us

The tailwinds that have underpinned the rebound in the dollar this year seem, to us, to have run their course. While we wouldn’t be surprised if the dollar stayed firm over the coming months, we still...

21st March 2024 · 4 mins read

DM Valuations Monitor

Global Markets Valuations Monitor (March 2024)

The valuations of “risky” assets have kept rising so far this year, even as “safe” asset yields have rebounded. While risky asset valuations are quite high by past standards, we doubt this will...

21st March 2024 · 1 min read

Industrial Metals Update

Global Aluminium Production (Feb.)

The drop in global aluminium production in February should be a blip now that output curbs in China’s Yunnan province due to power constraints have been lifted.

20th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Global Markets Outlook – What to expect from equities, bonds and FX markets

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Our markets team recently held an online briefing all about how we expect global equities, bonds, and currencies to perform through the end of this year and into 2025.

Global Economics Update

Global industry set for gradual recovery

The latest data suggest that global industry may be coming back to life. Much of the improvement so far has related to China, where policy will continue to support domestic production. But falling...

19th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – On course for a soft landing

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The global economic outlook is subject to various uncertainties which have left forecasters split over the possibilities of a hard landing, soft landing or e

Capital Daily

The renminbi looks weak and we think it will rally

We think that, despite ongoing PBOC intervention to prop it up, the valuation of the renminbi looks very weak on a range of fundamental metrics. As such, we wouldn’t be surprised if it rose over time...

15th March 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Inflation uncertainty could keep the dollar stronger for longer

Stronger-than-expected CPI and PPI data out of the US were the key catalysts for the greenback’s rebound this week, as investors continued to pare back their expectations for the Fed to cut its policy...

15th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

The copper supply squeeze begins to bite

It was generally a strong week for commodity prices despite the US dollar nudging higher. Oil prices rose by ~3% after the IEA revised its forecasts towards a tighter oil market and following the...

15th March 2024 · 4 mins read

FX Markets Valuations Monitor

FX Valuations Monitor (Q1 2024)

The US dollar has risen against most currencies since the start of the year, while most of our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are little unchanged. Taken together, this leaves the dollar...

15th March 2024 · 1 min read

Climate Economics Update

“New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data

Amid increasing concerns in the west over China’s dominance in the production of solar panels, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries – dubbed the “New Three” – China’s exports of green...

14th March 2024 · 0 mins read