Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation in Egypt and UAE Financial markets across the MENA region have been hit over the past few months, but there are at least signs that growth has stabilised in key economies. After a disappointing first half of the year... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Reality bites Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well this year, but policymakers cannot delay the adjustment to low oil prices much longer. Tighter fiscal policy looms. Large savings and low debt levels mean... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slower, but not collapsing Emerging market (EM) growth has slowed further recently, but there is no sign of the collapse that some are talking about. In fact, there is tentative evidence that EM growth has begun to stabilise. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s FX reserve depletion has further to run The fact that Saudi Arabia is drawing down its foreign exchange reserves should come as little surprise given that the Kingdom is running a current account deficit and also facing sizeable capital... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Another drop in frontier market currencies Uncertainty over the outlook for monetary policy in the US and renewed concerns about the health of China’s economy are weighing heavily on frontier market currencies. The weakest currency has again... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities shrug off corruption investigation In a mixed month for the MENA region’s equity markets, Egypt’s EGX30 proved to be the best performer despite the launch of a corruption investigation within the cabinet. In contrast, Saudi Arabia’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria: low oil prices force authorities into action Algeria was ill-prepared to confront a period of low oil prices and, as we warned might happen, the authorities have reacted by letting the dinar weaken, while a sharp fiscal squeeze is now on the... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks still low in most Ems Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that, for all the recent talk of an “EM crisis”, financial risks in most of the emerging world are low. There is certainly nothing in the CERI to... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates amid Fed uncertainty The decision by the Egyptian central bank (CBE) to keep its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% today was probably a close call and we suspect that policymakers were swayed from... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: Where do the risks lie? The decision by S&P to downgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating to junk last week has refocused attention on EM debt burdens. As it happens, we have been warned about rising debt levels in Brazil for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Slowdown on the horizon in Saudi Arabia Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to grow by over 5% y/y at the start of Q3. However, this is likely to be as good as it gets for some time – we expect growth to slow over... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of bright spots With good news thin on the ground in the emerging world, it’s reassuring that there are at least a few emerging markets (EMs) where growth is holding up well. Most notably, the economies of Central... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC expects to increase market share OPEC’s oil production appears to have levelled off in the last two months after surging earlier this year. But it will still take years for demand to catch up with supply and the market to rebalance. 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fed rate hikes take a backseat to low oil prices in the Gulf The Gulf’s commitment to dollar pegs mean that rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve will be imported to the region, adding to the headwinds facing economic growth. But this is a secondary concern... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at the EM export slowdown Much of the gloom currently hanging over the EM world is warranted, but there are reasons to think that the slump in exports, at least, will start to reverse toward the end of this year. That said... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Fresh commodity price weakness weighs on EM exports EM exports fell sharply in July on the back of the renewed drop in global commodity prices. And the early data suggest that things are unlikely to have improved last month either. 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
