Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth subdued but stable There has been very little in the latest data to justify fears of a widespread collapse in emerging markets. While economic growth remains subdued, conditions appear to have stabilised in recent... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Gulf, FX reserves and budget spending: a primer Several Gulf countries have turned to their foreign exchange reserves in an effort to finance budget and current account deficits caused by last year’s slump in oil prices, but there seems to be... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown underway Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed in August and, with a fiscal squeeze looking increasingly likely, growth looks set to weaken further over the coming quarters. We continue... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank loosens grip on pound, further falls likely For the third time this year the Central Bank of Egypt has loosened its grip on the pound and the currency is likely to fall further over the coming days. We expect it to reach 8.25/US$ by the end of... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports show signs of bottoming out EM exports continued to fall sharply in August, but the early data for September provide some hope that the worst may now be over. The year-on-year pace of contraction in export values is likely to... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect from Egypt’s parliamentary elections Egyptians are scheduled to return to the polls this month to elect a new parliament, which is likely to emerge as a body that is largely aligned with President al-Sisi. As we explain in this Watch, in... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi Arabian inflation rose to 2.3% y/y in September, its highest rate this year. But with the economy set to slow and global commodity prices likely to stay low, we expect inflation to remain... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that over a quarter of a trillion dollars flowed out of EMs in the third quarter. This was largely due to China, although there are signs that the pace of capital... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What role has the Syrian crisis played in lifting oil prices? The rebound in oil prices can largely be explained by an improvement in sentiment toward demand and mounting evidence of cuts in non-OPEC supply. Admittedly, the escalation of Russia’s military... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon defies gravity, for now… The conflict in Syria has taken a heavy toll on Lebanon’s economy over the past few years – the country is hosting more than a million refugees, the key tourism sector is suffering, and the political... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to avoid bank liquidity crunch We think recent concerns that a withdrawal of government deposits from commercial banks will result in a liquidity crunch across the Gulf are overdone. Policymakers have plenty in their toolkit to... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook One extreme to the other Having been too optimistic on the outlook for the emerging world over much of the past five years, the consensus has now shifted too far in the other direction. Economic and financial vulnerabilities... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How we compare with the IMF The IMF downgraded its forecasts for emerging market (EM) growth in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). While we agree with the IMF that EM growth should rebound next year, we think the IMF has... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) September’s whole economy’ PMIs point to renewed weakness in the Gulf economies at the end of Q3. Elsewhere, there is further evidence that Egypt’s economy has stabilised following a weak first half... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing slows further September’s PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world weakened further last month, with export orders particularly subdued. But in the EMs that have been in the spotlight... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
