Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia turns to international bond markets to plug shortfall Reports that Saudi Arabia will launch an international bond provides some clarity on how the budget deficit will be financed over the next year – as things stand, we think around 65% will come from... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation to 9.7% y/y in October was driven almost entirely by an increase in the food component, which is highly volatile. Stripping out food prices, inflation actually... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Renewed security concerns to hit Egypt’s tourism sector Mounting evidence that the Russian plane crash in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula was caused by a bomb planted by an affiliate of Islamic State is almost inevitably going to deal a hammer blow to Egypt’s... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long will the Gulf’s foreign exchange reserves last? Substantial foreign exchange reserves mean that most of the Gulf economies can afford to adjust gradually to a prolonged period of cheap oil. Kuwait and the UAE are in the strongest position, but... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending to weaken further as fiscal squeeze bites Despite recent media reports espousing the resilience of Saudi consumers in the face of lower oil prices, a number of indicators suggest that household spending in the Kingdom has softened in recent... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s ‘whole economy’ PMIs for the MENA region suggest that economic activity slowed in the Gulf at the start of Q4. As the policy adjustment to cheap oil gets underway, we expect growth to weaken... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Signs of stabilisation in EM manufacturing October’s manufacturing PMIs, published today, contain early signs that the worst may finally be over for manufacturers across the EM world. The headline index improved both in key large EMs, such as... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downgrade puts poor fiscal position in the spotlight The decision by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating on Friday night is hardly surprising in light of the deterioration in the fiscal position this year and lack of a... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to rebound soon Although aggregate EM inflation slowed slightly in September, it is set to rise in the months ahead as the drag from last year’s slump in oil prices fades. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM rates to follow divergent paths The shift towards looser monetary policy in the emerging world earlier this year is over and, with the first rate hike in the US inching nearer, we think that many EMs are likely to tighten policy... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as external concerns return A renewed focus on Egypt’s external position appears to have been the main reason why the central bank kept the benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% today, rather than lower rates. The... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia begins to tighten its belt The past month has brought the clearest signs yet that a fiscal squeeze in Saudi Arabia is looming. According to leaked memos, the Ministry of Finance has ordered government entities to halt new... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of improvement in latest EM data Against the backdrop of ongoing talk of an EM slowdown, it appears that growth in the emerging world has actually been fairly steady in recent months. In fact, the latest reading of our EM GDP Tracker... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound devalued, likely to fall further The Egyptian pound was devalued, albeit modestly, over the past few weeks and, while the central bank has brought this process to a halt, we think a further fall in the currency is likely over the... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Upcoming elections key to outlook for several FMs Four frontier markets are due to hold national elections in the coming month. The most high-profile election is in Argentina where Daniel Scioli, the candidate of the ruling left-wing coalition... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s dollar peg is here to stay Saudi Arabia’s peg to the US dollar is coming under increasing scrutiny but we think fears that the authorities will devalue the riyal are overdone. The Kingdom’s substantial foreign exchange reserves... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
