Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities drop, yields rise as external concerns resurface Renewed concerns over Egypt’s external position, coupled with fresh security fears in light of the Russian plane crash in the Sinai, have caused the country’s equity market to slump and dollar bond... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation now rising in more EMs than it is falling Although aggregate EM inflation edged down in October, the number of EM economies that recorded a rise in inflation last month exceeded those where it fell. We expect this trend to continue in 2016. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Devaluation fears rise in Egypt and Saudi Arabia The past month has bought mounting speculation about currency devaluation in the region’s two largest economies, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. In the case of Saudi Arabia, we think this is extremely... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Brazil a weak link amid EM stabilisation Emerging market (EM) growth appears to have slowed a touch in September on the back of the deepening recession in Brazil. Even so, there are no signs of the collapse in broader EM growth that some... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation likely to be a last resort Speculation over a devaluation of the Saudi riyal has mounted in the past few days but we think such a move is likely to be used as a last resort. Instead, we think cuts to capital spending are likely... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier markets scramble as Fed hike approaches Central banks across the world’s frontier markets are preparing themselves as the US Federal Reserve finally moves toward its first rate hike in nine years. Central bankers in Angola, Ghana, Zambia... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Capital spending likely to bear brunt of austerity in the Gulf The Gulf countries are in a strong position to cope with low oil prices, but some form of adjustment will be needed over the coming years. We expect tighter fiscal policy to do most of the work and we... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM debt problem revisited The past few weeks have seen increased awareness of potential debt problems brewing in the emerging world. In general, debt burdens are lower and more manageable in most EMs than in the past. But... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Risks to Middle East oil supplies remain high Ample global supply of oil means that prices are no longer incorporating much of a risk premium. However, the potential for disruption is still high and lack of spare capacity mean that prices could... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mounting signs that Egypt’s exchange rate policy will shift There is growing talk that Egypt is in the midst of a currency crisis and, while we think some of this may be a bit overdone, developments over the past month or so suggest that a shift towards a more... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2015) Lower commodity prices have continued to weigh on consumption in commodity-exporting EMs. Indeed, there are signs that even in those economies where spending had previously held up reasonably well... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s economy shifts down a gear Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply in September. With a fiscal squeeze expected to get underway soon, this is likely to be a sign of things to come over the next... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that EM capital outflows remained large in October, but they did at least decline from September. This should help to soothe concerns (overstated in our view) about an... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi privatisations add to reasons for slow policy adjustment The Saudi government appears to be moving towards privatising a number of state-owned companies which, although not a game changer when it comes to financing the budget deficit, adds to the reasons to... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Drag on EM exports from commodity collapse should ease soon EM exports remained weak in September as the drag from lower commodity prices continued to take its toll, even in countries which are not major commodity exporters. However, as this drag fades and... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation edged up for the second consecutive month in October, to 2.4% y/y, a fresh high for this year. Even so, low global commodity prices and slower economic growth should keep price... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
