Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi privatisations point to gradual adjustment to cheap oil A privatisation drive in Saudi Arabia looks increasingly likely and we estimate that the government might be able to raise between $75bn and $100bn (12-15% of GDP) from asset sales. This wouldn’t be... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No sign (yet) of an EM credit crunch EM credit growth remains weak by its usual standards but there is no evidence (yet) of a widespread “credit crunch” that could be the precursor to a more serious downturn in economic activity. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia was unchanged at 2.3% y/y in December, but the recent wave of subsidy cuts means that it is likely to edge higher over the coming months. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that aggregate EM capital outflows rose to a record $270bn in the final quarter of last year, even more than during the depths of the global financial crisis. This was... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation and tourism troubles spell slowdown in 2016 The latest Egyptian economic data, on the face of it, show that the economy held up well in 2015, but the underlying picture is actually pretty weak. With the tourism sector in the midst of a fresh... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crisis or recovery: what next for emerging economies? Many parts of the emerging world are facing a tough year in 2016. But the outlook is not as uniformly bleak as many assume and some important emerging economies could spring positive surprises. 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debunking four myths about EMs Not so long ago we were among the most bearish commentators on emerging markets. But even we find some of the more recent gloomy headlines difficult to square with the evidence on the ground. In this... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mohammed bin Salman fleshes out Saudi Arabia’s economic plans In an interview with The Economist published earlier today, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (or MbS, as he is known locally) outlined encouragingly ambitious fiscal and reform... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia chooses fiscal squeeze rather than devaluation The fresh drop in oil prices has once again prompted speculation that Saudi Arabia will follow other major oil producers and devalue its currency. But we think this will only be used as a last resort... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia & UAE Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The drop in ‘whole economy’ PMIs from the Gulf countries in December, in the case of Saudi Arabia to a fresh record low, provides further evidence that non-oil sectors are starting to feel the pinch... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget sets Kingdom up for fiscal squeeze Saudi Arabia’s budget for 2016 released at the end of last year sets the Kingdom up for a period of fiscal consolidation. The plans outlined will help to rein in the country’s large twin budget and... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3) The slowdown in Saudi GDP growth in the third quarter of last year, to 3.6% y/y, is a sign of things to come. With the recent budget confirming that a period of fiscal consolidation is now underway... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets tumble but PMIs relatively reassuring Equities and currencies have weakened across the emerging world today but the latest economic data, in the form of the manufacturing PMIs, point to a further slight improvement in December. A fall in... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Argentina goes orthodox The inauguration of President Mauricio Macri has brought about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Argentina. Over a decade of populist and interventionist macroeconomic policy has... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt edging closer to pound devaluation The Egyptian central bank has found itself in the spotlight this month, as attention has (re-)focussed on the country’s fragile external position. The appointment of Tarek Amer as governor had already... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest oil price fall will keep inflation lower for longer Inflation still looks likely to rise in most EMs next year, despite the recent slump in oil prices. However, the rebound will now be more gradual, which will allow central banks in most economies to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
