Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries shed light on fiscal plans The raft of budgets announced in the Gulf over the past month should help to ease concerns that these countries lack a clear agenda to adjust to cheap oil. The Saudi government has already cut energy... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dips – but no sign of collapse Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth dipped again in November. However, this was driven overwhelmingly by a deepening downturn in Brazil – and more recent survey data have provided some hope that... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergent inflation outlook The divergence in EM inflation looks set to persist throughout 2016. In Emerging Asia, Central Europe and parts of the Middle East, low oil prices will help keep inflation muted. But in some of the... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap A tough start to the year for frontier financial markets Frontier assets have had a difficult start to the year as fears over global growth caused fresh turmoil in financial markets. Oil producers have been particularly hard hit on the back of the collapse... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: interest rates on hold, devaluation increasingly likely The Central Bank of Egypt kept its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 9.25% today as an influx of financial support has eased immediate concerns over the country’s external position and... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf financial markets battered by fresh slump in oil prices The start of 2016 has brought more of the same for financial markets in the Gulf – equity markets have fallen, bond yields have risen and speculation has continued to mount that currencies will be... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices jump on Saudi comments and US blizzard After another poor start, the prices of industrial commodities ended the week on the up. The main positives were hints of additional monetary policy support from the ECB and the absence of any more... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Would the Gulf benefit from currency devaluation? The latest drop in oil prices has intensified speculation that the Gulf economies might abandon their dollar pegs but there remain good reasons to think that this would achieve little in terms of... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of an EM currency war looks overdone A retreat to widespread competitive currency devaluations in emerging markets would certainly be a cause for concern but, despite recent claims to the contrary, there is so far little evidence to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth steady in Q4, but set to slow sharply this year Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Saudi Arabia’s economy was broadly stable between October and November but, with a fiscal squeeze underway, growth looks set to weaken this year. We remain... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stable despite market slump Sentiment towards emerging markets has worsened since the start of the year amid mounting worries about the outlook in a number of key economies. Nevertheless, the latest data provide no evidence of a... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production dips in December OPEC production slipped in December, led by Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, but the group’s output is still near record highs. Even though demand is set to grow by over 1m bpd this year and non-OPEC supply... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would a China hard landing mean for EMs? We don’t expect China to suffer a hard landing, but if it were to happen it would result in widespread currency weakness and slower growth in large parts of the emerging world. Emerging Asian... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Lifting of Iran sanctions not a game-changer for oil Confirmation that Western sanctions linked to Iran’s nuclear programme are to be lifted might be expected to add to the downward pressure on oil prices, but there are three main reasons why the impact... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran sanctions relief: assessing the impact Sanctions relief should support a revival of Iran’s economy and a short period in which it enjoys growth of as much as 6-8%. But there is unlikely to be much impact on the rest of the region, either... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Drop in EM exports still likely to ease this year EM exports continued to perform poorly at the tail-end of last year, but we think that the pace of contraction should at least ease over the course of 2016. 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
