Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt central bank holds rates, but further hikes likely soon The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept its overnight deposit rate at 10.75% today as it awaits further evidence of the impact on inflation from last month’s devaluation of the pound. With inflation set... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRICs drive pick-up in EM growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has turned a corner, with the BRIC economies leading the way. Looking ahead, we think that the BRICs will continue to drive a recovery in EM growth. We expect... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Don’t get carried away with Saudi Arabia’s reform plans Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has created a buzz with his ambitious plans to transform the Kingdom’s economy, but we would caution against getting carried away. The... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency effects begin to unwind The effects of sharp falls in EM exchange rates since 2014 – which pushed inflation up to multi-year highs in a number of major economies – are now starting to fade. Assuming there isn’t another big... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” provides few new details The Saudi government’s “Vision 2030” plan outlined today has been welcomed by the local financial markets, but it provided few fresh details on the reform agenda and missed key issues such as... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia remained elevated at 4.3% y/y in March due to the electricity and water tariff hikes earlier in the year and, more recently, last month’s hike in tobacco import duties. These... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers ask the IMF to come to their rescue A number of frontier markets have turned to the IMF for financial support over the past few months in order to counter strains in their balance of payments. Angola has formally opened negotiations... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Some respite for commodity producers The worst looks to be over for many EM commodity producers. Their currencies have again been among the best performers this month, helped by a continued recovery in commodity prices. The slump in... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rebound in oil prices supports Gulf financial markets Financial markets across the Gulf have performed well over the past month, supported by the continued recovery in oil prices. Meanwhile, Egyptian markets have been buoyed by last month’s decision by... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: CBE’s deficit financing adds to pressures on the pound The Egyptian government seems to be increasingly reliant on the central bank to finance the budget deficit. If this persists, inflation is likely to remain elevated and downward pressure on the pound... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia digs its heels in at Doha Saudi Arabia’s insistence that Iran agree to freeze oil production scuppered any chance of a deal in Doha at the weekend and suggests that the Kingdom is in no mood to abandon its oil market strategy... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export decline easing off The rate at which EM exports are declining slowed markedly in February. Rising commodity prices and a rebound in China should boost exports later this year. 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that total capital outflows from EMs eased further in March, reaching a nine-month low of just under $40bn. One reason is that the recent improvement in sentiment towards EMs has... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF Angola last week became the first EM oil producer to turn to the IMF since oil prices started to fall in 2014. In the near-term, we don’t expect any others to follow suit. External risks in EM oil... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy feeling the strains of austerity Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply at the start of this year as the impact of fiscal austerity weighed heavily on the non-oil sector. Meanwhile, today’s decision by... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: rapid credit growth starting to ring alarm bells Qatar has been one of the best performing economies in the MENA region over the past decade and one of the key drivers of this has been the rapid growth of bank lending. However, we are concerned that... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
